No Market, No Autonomy: The Missing Link in Europe’s Raw Materials Strategy

Today, critical minerals—lithium, rare earths, vanadium—are traded largely in opaque bilateral contracts, indexed to reference prices set far from European influence. These prices are often dictated by interests outside the continent, reflecting neither the reality of European supply chains nor the true value of responsibly sourced materials. This lack of price sovereignty leaves Europe exposed economically, strategically, and politically.

It’s no longer enough to identify strategic raw material projects or approve new mines. If Europe fails to reform how critical materials are traded and how prices are formed, we will remain price takers in a geopolitical game we don’t control. Instead, Europe must invest in building the market itself: fostering liquidity, mandating transparency, and enabling fair price discovery. Only then can our companies negotiate on equal footing and our industrial policy stand on solid ground.

Currently, nearly all transactions in critical minerals occur through long-term offtake agreements. These are often encouraged—if not demanded—by financiers and OEM customers who want supply certainty. While the spot market sets the price benchmarks for the entire market, this reliance on index-based, long-term contracts suffocates its liquidity. Without a liquid and transparent spot market, real price discovery cannot occur, and everyone in the ecosystem suffers, from miners to buyers and investors.

Too often, the industry refers to “market prices” that are, in reality, merely reported indices: prices not always anchored in transparent transactions. We’ve seen companies paying 10 to 15% above indexed prices for lithium simply because the indices failed to capture true market behaviour. This gap is not theoretical. It adds risk, distorts investment decisions, and undermines trust in the entire value chain.

With today’s digital platforms, there is no excuse for opacity. Digital trading platforms exist, and price reporting can be tied to actual transactions. Strategic stockpiles, used intelligently, can stabilise prices and inject liquidity, just as the US, Japan, and South Korea have shown. But Europe has yet to embrace these tools with purpose. To stop being price takers, we must create a market ecosystem that rewards openness and penalises opacity.

This shift toward openness will only happen if companies change, too. You cannot demand transparent prices while refusing to transact in transparent ways. The mining sector, buyers, and investors all have a role to play. That means sellers offering volume into spot markets and buyers willing to purchase there. Transparency lowers risk for everyone but requires a cultural shift across the value chain.

Labelling projects as “strategic” helps, but it’s not enough. The EU and member states must step into a convening role—not to overregulate, but to coordinate. We need a continental effort to build pricing power within our borders: through incentives for open trading, public-private partnerships for strategic stockpiles, and regulatory clarity that enables liquidity rather than locking in risk.

Europe has the technical expertise, regulatory frameworks, and capital. What it lacks is alignment. We cannot mine our way to autonomy if we outsource pricing power to others. Strategic autonomy demands more than extraction; it demands influence. That starts with pricing power. If Europe wants to lead, it must stop waiting and start building the markets on which its future depends.

This article is based on Dr Frank Jackel’s remarks during the panel session “Unlocking Capital for Europe’s Raw Materials Future: Closing the Gap” at the 7th EIT RawMaterials Summit in Brussels on 14 May 2025. Published initially on eitrawmaterials.eu.